While no one was looking, Democrats came within 3 points of winning a Republican +9 district. No, not GA 6, SC 5. The district Mulvaney gave up. A district Democrats lost by 20 points last year. Democrats went from 39 to 48 in that district. A 9 point swing. And Democrats went from 38 to 48 in GA 6, a Republican +8 district, a 10 point swing. Replicate a 9-10 point swing nationwide in the November 2018 and the Democrats will win the House.
The problem is not Democrats’ performance, but the miserable way the party, and outside groups, have handled the expectations game. They overhyped their chances in GA 6. So what was a 10 point swing seems like a setback. They didn’t hype their chances in SC 5, and that looks like a big gain.
In addition, Democrats should re-evaluate pouring resources (money) beyond the saturation point, as in GA 6. That resulted in a diminishing return on their investment, and a loss of money that could have gone to 2018. People only have so much to donate. Also note the irony that Democrats came in the four special elections in SC 5, where they spent less than in GA 6 and Montana. Money isn’t everything.
But, on the whole, Democrats should be encouraged, not discouraged, by the totality of these results. Dave Wasserman of The Cook Report makes a similar point:
Last night's results were far from a disaster for Democrats, and Republicans shouldn't be tempted to believe their House majority is safe. In fact, their majority is still very much at risk.
First and foremost, just one state over, unheralded Democratic tax expert Archie Parnell - who ran on a similarly conciliatory, post-partisan message but generated a tiny fraction of the hype Ossoff did—shockingly came within three points of Republican Ralph Norman in a district President Trump carried by 18 points last November (Ossoff came within four points in a district Trump carried by one).
Although it's true Democrats have agonizingly yet to capture a red district, they have outperformed their "generic" share of the vote significantly in every contest. Measured against the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI), Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean of their districts by an average of eight points in the past five elections:
If Democrats were to outperform their "generic" share by eight points across the board in November 2018, they would pick up 80 seats. Of course, that won't happen because Republican incumbents will be tougher to dislodge than special election nominees. But these results fit a pattern that should still worry GOP incumbents everywhere, regardless of Trump's national approval rating and the outcome of the healthcare debate in Congress.
cookpolitical.com/...